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Friday, May 29, 2015

Guess Work

I'm guessing that drama king, Jim Cantore, is sitting in an Atlanta TV studio and frowning right now.

The federal government has released its annual hurricane season prediction.  The season begins June 1.

The way the forecasters see it, there will be 6 to 11 named storms.  3 to 6 will become hurricanes, with 0 to 2 becoming major hurricanes.  It all translates into a quieter than normal season.

Sorry, Jim.

Federal forecasters say their outlook is 70 per cent accurate.

100 per cent of me laughs.

The hurricane season projection accuracy rate, in recent years, isn't very good.

Any forecast longer than a few days is little more than a guess.  Forecasters look for trends, but weather patterns change every few weeks.

I know we all went more and better forecasts, with long range reliability.  I'm sorry.  The planet just doesn't work that way.