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Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Less Than 50

The presidential election is less than fifty days away.

I'm leaning toward the conventional wisdom that the popular vote will be close, but Hillary Clinton has an easier path to 270 electoral votes than Donald Trump.  Even with a solid south and Texas, it's tough to overcome Clinton having California and New York in her pocket.

While 48 days might not seem like a lot, we still have the debates ahead...  as well as lingering issues about Mrs. Clinton's health.

As far as Pennsylvania goes, it appears Clinton will do extremely well in Philadelphia and surrounding counties.  It will be tough for Trump to make up those votes in the rest of the state.  67 counties.  I'm sure Trump will win most.  The problem for Trump is he is popular in rural counties, not the big cities.

I should note that I'm seeing signs for Republican candidates in areas where I hadn't seen them before.  This one could get very interesting.

Right now, it appears the Toomey vs McGinty will be a nail biter.  In Monday column, George Will called in "this year's most consequential senate race."  You can look it up.  The reasoning is solid.  A lot of money is being spent, and I'm betting even more mud (on both sides) will fly before November 8.  The Republicans hold 54 seats.  The Democrats have 44.  There are two Independents, but they caucus with the Democrats.  It's very easy to see how control can flip.  The senate thing might hold more intrigue than the presidential race as we head toward the finish line.

Still, there is a wild card.  Terrorism.  It was a frightening weekend.  There is a perception that Trump is the stronger anti terrorism candidate.  On the other hand, a lot of people see Clinton's secretary of state experience as a big plus.  I can see how the whole terrorism issue can sway some voters.  Some independents are up for grabs, as well as the undecideds.

48 days leaves plenty of room for change.