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Monday, October 23, 2017

WinterWatch

You knew this was coming.

Every year, the National Weather Service issues its winter outlook.  Every year, I raise the skeptical eyebrow.

As you can see, Pennsylvania stands an equal chance of being warmer or cooler than normal.  The Great Lakes will freeze.  The south bakes.

The accuracy rate of a super long range forecast like this is fifty per cent.  Why bother?  It's an educated guess.  The National Weather Service emphasizes the "educated."   I stress the "guess."

Yes, there is a puddle of cool water in the Pacific that indicates this is a La Nina year.  I get that.  I also get that patterns change, currents move.

Personally, sorry skiers, I'd like to see a warmer and drier than normal winter.  Home heating bills come down.  There are fewer snow and ice related crashes.  Children stay in school.  People can get to stores to keep the economy moving.  The recreation industry suffers, but you can't have everything.

I'll meet you back here in April to see how it all works out.