Friday, May 11, 2012

Double Swing

MSNBC recently published a list of areas where the presidential election ad wars will play out.  They are, as MSNBC put it, the swing markets in swing states-- places that George Bush won in 2004, and Barack Obama won in 2008.

Guess who was at the top of the list, and the only market in Pennsylvania.  Yes.  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.  It looks like we're in play.  Obama and Romney both stand a good chance of winning here.

Pennsylvania has been Democrat blue for the last five presidential elections, but let's examine the state a little more closely.  Democrats just about always win the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.  Erie is also a Democrat stronghold.  No offense to the fine people of northwestern Pennsylvania, but there's not a lot of votes there.  The middle of the state and northern tier usually go Republican.

That leaves northeastern Pennsylvania.  Yes, there are a lot of Democrats here, but it is also a conservative area.  The right Republican candidate, with the right campaign and the right message, could do very well here-- counteracting the big city vote, and supplementing the votes from Pennsylvania's Republican "T."  It could put Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes in the Republican column the night of November 6.

In case you're wondering, some of the other swing markets in swing states are Norfolk and Richmond Virginia, Orlando and Tampa Florida, Columbus and Toledo Ohio, and Green Bay and Milwaukee Wisconsin.

Get ready.  Both parties are poised to spend a lot of money to get your vote.