Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Down One


The census numbers are in and to no one's surprise, the south gets stronger and Pennsylvania gets a little weaker.

The state loses one of its 18 congressional districts, and our electoral vote counts drops from 20 to 19.  Pennsylvania peaked at 38 in the 1920's.  It was as high as 25 during the Reagan years.

Does the state lose some of its clout?  Of course.  Is it still one of the major prizes?  Indeed yes.

So, now it's up to the people in Harrisburg to re-draw the congressional district maps, and we remember what kind of debacle that was ten years ago.  Each party tries to protect its incumbents.  Each party looks for the advantage.  The goal is to split the state into 17 pieces, with roughly the same number of residents in each.  Add the political component, and you get some funky looking districts.

Last time, it would up in the courts and no one would really be shocked if it happens again.  There is a lot at stake here.

Equally as fascinating, Texas gets two more representatives and that means two more electoral votes.  Democrats have to be concerned about that.  Texas hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  Plus, blue state California loses one, and California hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George HW Bush in 1988.

Florida jumps one, to 30, and that is a state that has gone Republican in seven out of the last ten presidential elections.

The path to 270, always treacherous, becomes even more challenging, for both parties in 2024.

If all goes as it should, you could see some different names, in different places, on the ballot  next year.