Thursday, June 18, 2015

Vote 16

I was wrong.

I didn't think Donald Trump would get in to the race for the Republican presidential nomination.  He talks a good game, excuse me, a great game, but when it's time to step up, Trump has always been absent.  I think he's always been reluctant to place all his financial cards on the table, required for a presidential run.

It's different this time around.  I suspect Trump has research showing the nomination is within his grasp.  That speech Tuesday morning was impressive.  Trump touched on all the  issues ticking off Americans these days-- the economy, immigration, Mexico, North Korea, China, Isis, Iran, the middle east, Detroit, ObamaCare...  He really came out swinging.

Republicans nominated another rich guy in 2012, and that one went down in flames.  Mitt Romney should have won that election.  The economy was a mess.  Obama was wounded.  Romney came off as a wealthy man who didn't care about the poor and the middle class.  Trump seemed to care, and that could take him a long way.

As of this writing, there are a dozen declared candidates.  At least four others will soon get in.  There are some strong resumes and personalities.

The primary season will be extra interesting.  Republicans have a habit of giving the nomination to people who are un-electable in the general election.  Let's take a look at the candidates during my lifetime.

1964:  Bary Goldwater, a conservative in increasingly liberal country.  The pendulum swung the other way after the disastrous Jimmy Carter years, and Ronald Reagas was elected in 1980,

1976:  Gerald Ford was a decent chap.  He couldn't get inflation under control.  The economy was going south, and a lot of people were still upset over the Nixon pardon.

1992:  George H. W. Bush, another decent chap, but he was perceived as an insulated leader who lost touch with the middle class.

2008:  John McCain-- a great American, but he came across as a cranky old man whose solution to everything was saying "no."

2012:  Mitt Romney-- see above.

There are many in the current Republican field who can get the nomination, but they'll fail horribly in the general election.    There are some good candidates, too.

I'm not picking on the Republicans here.  The Democrats have had their share of failures.  As far as 2016 goes, it looks like Clinton has it wrapped up before the votes are cast, in spite of all her negatives.  I have a feeling the others in the race are simply waiting for Clinton to self destruct, or they're just trying to get name recognition for the second spot on the ticket.

Politics is many things.  It is never boring.