I've been picking the Super Bowl in this space for several years, with modest results. This year will be no exception.
My "system" is to favor the team with the best defense. This year, it's Philadelphia, by a slim margin. Kansas City is a tough opponent. It's very difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes, even with a bad ankle. On the other hand, KC head coach Andy Reid usually makes a critical mistake in every big game.
Take Philadelphia, and you can even give up the two and a half points.
Me? I hope to be asleep at game time. I kid you not. I have not watched a Super Bowl since 1999. A scheduling quirk gave me the following day off, and I wound up at a party in Olyphant. There is no party like an Olyphant party. Anyway, I became bored and moved to the kitchen, where I watched the movie "Clueless" with the girls. That was the year Denver demolished Atlanta.
And as always, a warning. Leave me out of Super Bowl telecast "commercial" discussions. I could not possibly care less. Some 30 second commercials sold for more than $ 7 million. I know a Super Bowl commercial makes a big splash, but if I was in marketing, I'd spread that money out. I still remember "reach, frequency, continuity" from college advertising classes. The Super Bowl gives you the reach. I always sided with frequency and continuity.
Bottom line, take the Eagles and they'll cover the spread.